Real Estate Market Forecast for 2024-2025 in Quebec

10 juillet 2023,

Forecasts for the real estate market in Quebec continue to be talked about these days.

With skyrocketing interest rates, a slowing market, and declining prices, it is difficult for buyers and sellers to know where to position themselves.

Is the market in favor of buyers or sellers? What can we expect from the real estate market for 2024 and 2025?

After analyzing various studies and publications from the CMHC, the Association des courtiers immobiliers du Québec, and government databases, we are ready to present you with the latest forecasts from the experts.

In this article, you will find a summary of the various findings made by various professionals regarding the real estate market in Quebec for the next two years. Since no one can predict the future, always take this information with a grain of salt.

What is the average price of a house in Quebec?

How much should you expect to pay for a house in Quebec?

The median price of a house in Quebec is $400,000 at the start of 2024.

Obviously, depending on where you live, the price can be much higher (as is the case in Montreal), or lower.

According to the latest data published by the Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers of Quebec, the market in 2023 will experience a slight decline but is still stable.

In the first quarter of 2023, the median price of a single-family home in Quebec was $400,000, down -4% compared to the same period the previous year.
This is still an increase of +3% compared to the last quarter of 2022.
The median price of a condominium was $349,000 in the first quarter of 2023, also down -4% compared to the same period in 2022.
This is still a drop of only $1,000 compared to the last quarter of 2022.

Market slowdown according to Desjardins

In a report published at the beginning of 2023, Desjardins anticipated a 25% decrease in residential sales in Quebec in 2023. Desjardins also anticipates a general drop in prices of 17% by the end of 2023 compared to the April 2022 peak.

Real estate market forecast 2023 – Slight decline

The year 2023 is already well underway, and experts expect a year-end similar to what we have already seen.

This means that 2023 will be marked by slight price declines in some regions, and stability in others.

We should not anticipate any increases in real estate values in 2023, except in certain exceptional sectors.

Real estate forecasts for 2023 are, therefore, under the sign of real estate austerity, with a drastic reduction in the number of sales, and a drop in values.

Lower prices, but still expensive houses

Between March 2022 and March 2023, prices fell 14% across Canada according to CMHC Chief Economist Bob Dugan. That being said, prices are still higher than at their pre-pandemic level.

Real estate market forecast 2024 – Recovery to be expected

While mortgage rates were extremely high in 2023, CMHC predicts a return to normal in 2024.

CMHC further believes that market activity may increase in 2024, which means that the number of sales should increase positively.

According to CMHC forecasts, the number of sales should be:

423,128 sales in 2023
473,357 sales in 2024
505,205 sales in 2025

To make a comparison, the level of sales in 2022 was 498,269. We are, therefore, planning a gradual return to normal.

But what about prices?

Will house prices go up in 2024?

According to the CMHC, house prices should start to rise again in 2024. It anticipates a 7.9% growth in prices in Canada, while a significant drop is expected in 2023. Buyers and owners can therefore expect that prices start to rise again in 2024.

Real estate market forecast 2025 – Sustained growth

Let’s look ahead to 2025. What should the real estate market look like at this time?

There are many uncertainties in 2023, in particular due to the incessant rate hikes of the Bank of Canada which is trying all available means to control inflation.

If inflation is curbed in 2023 or 2024, rates could once again decrease which would bring new excitement to the real estate market.

CMHC also forecasts a gradual increase in the median price of single-family homes in Canada in 2024 and 2025. Here are their forecasts:

Median price of a house in 2023 in Canada: $643,325
Median price of a house in 2024 in Canada: $694,196
Median price of a house in 2025 in Canada: $746,410

What will house prices be like in 2025?

In its 2023 mid-year forecast, CMHC said it forecast a 7.5% increase in house prices for 2025. It explains this forecast by the recovery of market strength, following an extremely difficult 2023. Inflation should come back under control, and rates could come back down in 2024.

Mortgage forecast 2023-2026 – A direct relationship with real estate

Real estate is closely linked to the mortgage market and interest rates. When interest rates rise or are high, buyer demand is weak, which tends to lower prices.

In the 2023 market context, despite the high rates, the supply of properties is also limited, which means that the drop in prices is mitigated.

Interest rates significantly increased in Canada in 2022 and 2023. But what can we expect for the future until 2026?

No one seems to have the answer, and even the forecasts of top experts vary periodically.

According to the latest analyses, we will have to wait until 2024 to see the first cut in the country’s key rate.

CMHC real estate forecast for 2024-2025

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is also issuing other important clarifications regarding housing starts in Canada, one of the biggest economic drivers. Moreover, according to the chief economist of the Bank of Canada, the return of affordability to property prices in the country depends on the creation of new properties. He also said that if the supply of housing does not increase dramatically in the coming years, affordability could continue to deteriorate in a worrying way. According to a 2022 calculation, CMHC projected that 3.5 million new homes would be needed between 2023 and 2030 to restore housing affordability in Canada. She predicted at that time that the real total would be around 2 million.

Housing Forecast in Canada

Year	Number of housing in construction
2020	217,880
2021	271,198
2022	261,849
2023	176,890
2024	197,551
2025	230,865*

Source: Société canadienne d’hypothèques et de logements

Will house prices go down in the next few years in Quebec?

This question comes up very often, and it’s completely normal considering the evolution of the real estate market between 2019 and 2023. Prices between 2019 and 2022 have increased significantly. In 2022 and 2023, house prices are down in several regions of Quebec. In 2024 and 2025, as the forecasts have shown, experts rather expect a resumption of price growth. So don’t wait for real estate values to crash before buying a property because that may not happen. At least the odds are very low…

How to determine the value of your house?

With all the changes taking place in the real estate market and in the mortgage market, it is completely normal for you to be lost when it comes to the value of your home.

Yet, for the vast majority of people, their home is their biggest financial asset, and it’s important to know how much it is worth.

If you are thinking of selling your property in the near future, or if you wish to refinance it, you can have it appraised by professionals.

For an evaluation for the purpose of selling, you can request a free evaluation by a real estate broker by filling out our form.

For an appraisal for the purpose of refinancing, you can pay a licensed appraiser around $600-$900 for a full and official appraisal.

Would you like to get a free evaluation of your property? Here’s how!

Have your home assessed to get its real value FREE

No one can accurately predict what will happen to the real estate market in the coming years.

But one thing is certain – if you want to know the market value of your property, it is possible to do so for free.

Simply complete our free online form to have one of our partner real estate brokers assess the value of your home.

We have partners throughout Canada who can determine the value of your property if you wish to sell within the next year.

You will, therefore, be able to know what price you could obtain for your property in the context of the current market.

Compare
Real Estate Agents